Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp drop in demand for passenger air transport due to two factors: limited supply and reduced demand. The key to airlines’ recovery is to identify what forces they are fighting against. The article proposes a method for separating two COVID-19 factors and assessing the corresponding impact on demand. The method involves dividing passengers into different segments based on passenger characteristics, modeling different scenarios and forecasting demand for each passenger segment, in each scenario. Comparing forecasts with each other and with the real situation, we quantify the impact of COVID-19, which is associated with two forces. This method is applied to Air France – KLM. As a result, the influence of COVID-19 was determined.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting demand for passenger air transport, demand reduction, assessment method.