Abstract. Improving the efficiency of the transportation process on the railways of Kazakhstan by optimizing the Train Formation plan (TPP) is an important task in the context of growing transit flows, especially in such key divisions as the Almaty Transportation Department. Traditional methods of calculating the TFR used in the regional Transportation Management Center (RCMP-2) often do not provide global optimization and high transit of wagon flows at complex, branched landfills. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a method of dynamic transit forecasting to create optimal PFPS at the landfills of the Almaty branch.
The work is based on a mathematical model that formalizes the process as a multi-stage optimization problem with a transit maximization criterion (T_r). The main difference between the method is that is a calculation from the destination station to the departure station, a step-by-step selection of conditionally optimal solutions for combining or distributing car flows based on a comparison of car-hour savings. Detailed algorithms and flowcharts have been developed for linear directions and adjacent polygons suitable for implementation in an automated control system (ACS). The use of the method had a significant impact. At 15 stations and two adjacent landfills, it was possible to obtain optimal PFPS, saving 13,790 car-hours. A comparative analysis of the linear route of 6 stations shows that the proposed method allows increasing the number of flows arriving at the destination station by trains by 25-30%, and the number of transit stations from 5 to 8 compared with the traditional method. Doubling the capacity of the flows at the entrance to the landfill led to savings of 3.5-4 times per wagon–hour. The method of dynamic transit forecasting is a fundamentally new approach to the organization of carriage flows. It provides a significant increase in transitivity, reduction of sorting operations and acceleration of cargo delivery. The developed algorithms are adapted for implementation in the automated control system RCUP-2 of the Almaty branch of JSC NC KTZ and allow real-time automation of the OS correction process, which creates the basis for the transition to intelligent operational management systems.

Keywords: train formation plan, transit, dynamic forecasting, optimization, carriage flow, railway landfill, algorithm, saving car hours, JSC NC KTZ.